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August Seasonal Pattern Suggests Further Gains Mid-Month

With
about a third of August already in the record books, the market has thus far
avoided typical seasonal weakness. August got off to a choppy start, but as of yesterday’s
close DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 are all positive and
well above historical average performance for the full month of August. Fueled
by the prospect of more fiscal spending, in the form of a much-needed
infrastructure bill, DJIA is leading the way higher this month, up nearly 1.6%
as of today. S&P 500 and Russell 1000 are a close second up around 1.5%.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are the laggards, both with gains just under 1%. 

Compared
to the historical average performance in August over the past 31 years, all
five indexes are currently comfortably outperforming and are on course for a
respectable month provided nothing pops up to knock them off their current
course. Having already successfully sidestepped the usually weak first nine
days of August, the market could be set for further gains to finish this week
and next as mid-August has historically been the bright spot of the month.
However, after a mid-month run the market has tended to stumble and drift
sideways to lower through the end of the month. On average, only NASDAQ and
Russell 2000 have managed to climb above their respective mid-month highs by
month’s end.

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