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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 20.6% year-over-year in March

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March (“March” is a 3-month average of January, February and March prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Home Price Gain Of 20.6% In March
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 20.6% annual gain in March, up from 20.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 19.5%, up from 18.7% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 21.2% year-over-year gain, up from 20.3% in the previous month.

Tampa, Phoenix, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in March. Tampa led the way with a 34.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with a 32.4% increase, and Miami with a 32.0% increase. Seventeen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending March 2022 versus the year ending February 2022.

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 2.6% month-over-month increase in March, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 2.1%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively.

In March, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

“Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices will have to wait at least a month longer,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index recorded a gain of 20.6% for the 12 months ended March 2022; the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 19.5% and 21.2%, respectively. For both National and 20-City Composites, March’s reading was the highest year-over-year price change in more than 35 years of data, with the 10-City growth rate at the 99th percentile of its own history.

“The strength of the Composite indices suggests very broad strength in the housing market, which we continue to observe. All 20 cities saw double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in March, and price growth in 17 cities accelerated relative to February’s report. March’s price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for every city, and in the top decile for 19 of them.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 2.2% in March (SA).

The Composite 20 index is up 2.4% (SA) in March.

The National index is 60% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 2.1% (SA) in March.  The National index is up 117% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 19.5% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is up 21.2% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 20.6% year-over-year.

Price increases were above expectations.  I’ll have more later.

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