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December Low Indicator Holds

DJIA’s December Closing Low of 34022.04 on December 1st
held and that is encouraging. As you can see here in the chart as indicated in
the red and blue lines when DJIA closes below its December closing low in Q1 it
has frequently been an excellent warning sign. As you can see in the chart
below DJIA suffered its third Down
Friday/Down Monday
of 2022 today, which is not the most bullish of
indications.

The market is also under some heavy
technical selling pressure
as we detailed on February 10. But a successful retest
here of the January lows with support holding above those lows would be
constructive for a least a short term rally into April at the end of the Best Six
Month. The market is still prone to lower lows in Q2-Q3 this year as we have
illustrated on our Midterm
Election Year Seasonal pattern
.

With our January
Barometer
already down and our January Indicator Trifecta also negative if
the Dow’s December Low is breached here in Q1 2022 that would be more cause for
concern in the near term.

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