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Expect More May Market Volatility

May has delivered much more than its usual market
volatility. Stocks rallied strongly out of the blocks. NASDAQ jumped 3.2% on
the third trading day, May 4, up 5.1% for the month. Then the bottom fell out.
NASDAQ dropped 12.3% over the next five trading days. Bargain hunting came in
over the past four days rallying NASDAQ 5.5%. In the chart here we have put
2022 on the right scale to highlight the trend since the moves in May 2022 have
been about 10x the historical average. As you can see despite the increased volatility
this year stocks have tracked the typical May Seasonal Trend rather closely. The
market is still negative for the month. But if the trend continues the market
has a good shot to turn positive for May. But many support levels have been
broken and this appears to be a bear market rally.

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