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First Trading Day of December: Leans Bearish but Numerous Sizable Gains

In the now available, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2022, on page 90, it is shown that the first trading days of every month since September 1997 for DJIA have produced over 40% of the total gain. Greatest gains were produced by the first day of March followed by February and July. However December’s first trading day has not been as productive for DJIA or S&P 500. In the following table, the performance of the first trading day of December over the most recent 21 years is presented.

Aside from disastrous 2008, first trading day of December losses have been relatively mild for DJIA. The second worst loss, slightly less than 1% was in 2019. Although the table has numerous years with 1% or greater gains, consistency is lacking. Since 2006, December’s first trading day has been weaker, down nine of the last fifteen for DJIA and NASDAQ and ten of fifteen for S&P 500. However, today’s market weakness could be the perfect setup for a positive open to the final month of 2021.

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