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MACD End Best Six Months Seasonal Signal Triggered

Last week we issued our annual Best Six Months Seasonal MACD
“Sell” signal to our newsletter subscribers
(arrow in the chart). But it is not an all-out sell. It’s a neutral signal for
us to reposition our portfolios and get more defensive for the weaker time of
the year from May to October – which is weakest in midterm
years
.

We have been calling it a “Sell” signal for years, but we
are reconsidering that now as we don’t sell everything outright. We do sell
some positions, tighten up stops, limit new buying and rotate into more defensive
positions in sectors that historically do better in the Worst Six Months
May-October, but we do not sell everything and hold many core positions.

We have been warning about heightened volatility all year,
since our 2022 Annual Forecast out last December. And that is expected to
continue into Q2-Q3 as we have major headline risk from Ukraine, inflation, the
new Fed rate hike cycle, and China’s zero-Covid policy lockdowns that continue
to hamper and exacerbate persistent supply chain issues. We are not bears, but
we are not bulls either – we are neutral

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