Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.61 million SAAR in April
Excerpt: Sales in April (5.61 million SAAR) were down 2.4% from the previous month and were 5.9% below the April 2021 sales rate.
The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2021 and 2022.
Sales declined 5.9% year-over-year compared to March 2021. This was the eighth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.
A key milestone will be when inventory is up year-over-year (YoY). My current guess is inventory will be up YoY next month in the NAR report. Inventory will still be historically very low.
Also note that 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.98% in April according to Freddie Mac. Now rates are around 5.45%. Sometimes people rush to buy as rates rise – anticipating further rate increases. However, eventually, higher rates will suppress demand. It seems likely we will see a further negative impact on sales from higher rates, and more inventory in the coming months. There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).