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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

These are forecasts of the advance estimate of GDP to be released on Oct 28th.

Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last 2+ months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts underestimating the impact of the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.

 
Merrill
Goldman
GDPNow

7/30/21
7.0%
9.0%
6.1%

8/20/21
4.5%
5.5%
6.1%

9/10/21
4.5%
3.5%
3.7%

9/17/21
4.5%
4.5%
3.6%

9/24/21
4.5%
4.5%
3.7%

10/1/21
4.1%
4.25%
2.3%

10/8/21
2.0%
3.25%
1.3%

10/15/21
2.0%
3.25%
1.2%

From BofA Merrill Lynch: We continue to track 2% for 3Q GDP [Oct 15 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged after rounding at +3¼% (qoq ar). [Oct 15 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.2 percent on October 15, down from 1.3 percent on October 8. [Oct 15 estimate]

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