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Recent 21-Year May Seasonal Pattern: More Chop Likely

May’s first two days have historically traded higher. Recent market volatility suggests another day of gains could prove challenging especially as the market awaits the Fed’s next move on Wednesday. Bouts of weakness often appears around or on the third, sixth, and twelfth trading days of the month while the last four or five trading days have generally enjoyed respectable gains on average. In midterm years it has generally been better to lighten up on long positions early in May as the entire month tends to be weak (pages 42 and 44 STA 2022).

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